Italian industrial production unexpectedly falls in March, which has affected, in particular, the negative figure on vehicles. According to Istat, the production index showed a decline on a seasonally adjusted basis, 0.1% cyclical in March, after the data unchanged in February. The numbers disappoint the expectations of economists, gathered by Reuters, which were for an increase of 0.5%.
“In Italy, the initial recovery started in June last year has already broken,” said Fedele De Novellis, chief economist Ref
“Despite an economic situation much better than a year ago, the trend of the Italian recovery is very weak. There are at present compelling reasons to revise upward its outlook for 2010 GDP growth to a maximum of 1%” .
In detail the production of vehicles has scored a contraction of 8, 2% on month. The item weighs alone for 5.6% of the entire data prduzione. “The decrease is due at the end of government incentives to purchase cars,” says economist Laura Aletti Gestielle Cavallaro.
The index adjusted for working days has increased by 6.4% yoy from 2.8% in February, revised from an initial 2.7%. The trend marks the largest increase since December 2006. The weather, however, were for an increase of over index 7.4%. In the quarter, production rose by 1, 4% on the previous three months by +1% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
These data were also disappointing second Unicredit economist David Stroppa, especially in relation to the latest information received from ISAE and SMEs. “The only good thing in a given negative total is given by the relative tightness of capital and intermediate goods, which after all still see a sign positive but marginal,” said Stroppa. Among the items required, the split of the data, that relating to computers and electronics (+2.7%), metallurgy and metal products (+2.3%) and “other” products manufacturing (+1.5%) . Among the most penalized, however, that relating to the production of textiles and clothing (-3.8%).
Meanwhile, the ISAE, after data released this morning by Istat, announced to provide an overall growth of the Italian industrial poduzione about 4% in the second quarter of 2010 compared to the first.
The ISAE expected during the second tranche of the positive trends are beginning to appear, with particularly marked cyclical increases in May and June, “it said in a statement.
ITALY BACK EUROPEAN LEVEL
The data on industrial production Italian disappoint especially if compared with those of other economies of the euro area. Just this morning the French statistics showed an increase of 1% on month in March, above forecasts for a 0.3% fixed. Entire quarter, the French industrial production shows an increase of 1, 6%.
Germany: 4% m / m Industrial production in March (+8.6% YoY)
MILAN (AFX) – Industrial production in Germany in March showed a cyclical variation of +4% with an upward trend, 8, 6%. Said on the German Economy Ministry, adding that, again in March, manufacturing output showed a cyclical variation of +3.4% m / m and that the construction sector a +26.7% m / m.
UK: March industrial production rises above expectations
(AGI) – Rome – In March, the UK industrial production was rising by 2% on a monthly basis while at the trend was up 2%. Expectations were for an increase of 0.3% monthly and 0.6% on an annual basis. The data was published by the National Statistics of Great Britain (ONS).
Over the past three months industrial production marked a positive change of 1, 2% over the previous three months and nothing compared to last year. Regarding the manufacturing output was rising by 2.3% compared to the previous month and 3.3% on the trend. The quarterly change amounted to +1.2% compared to the previous three months, and to +1.5% over the same quarter the year before.
France industrial production up 1% in March, above expectations
PARIS (Reuters) – French industrial production rose by 1% from March 1, 6% throughout the first quarter, according to data published by INSEE. The February reading was confirmed the same.
Eighteen economists polled by Reuters had expected on average for an advance of 0.3% in March, with a range of estimates between -1.0% and +0.8%. The manufacturing, ie without energy but with food included, increased by 0.8% in March after a revised growth of 0.3% (+0.4% for the first estimate) in the previous month. Throughout the first quarter of the manufacturing industry marked a progress of 0.7%.
Spanish: Industrial production up in March
(AGI) – Rome – The Spanish industrial production in March and rose by 6.8% compared to the same period last year (as assumed for the effects of the calendar). This was announced by the National Bureau of Statistics of Spain (INE). In February, had a decrease of 1, 9%. The incorrect data for the calendar shows the same increase of 5.4% (-1.9% in January).
Greece: Industrial production -3.7% pa
Athens – The Greek industrial production fell in March by 3.7% pa (-9.2% in February) with a contraction of 1% of manufacturing sector (-7.6% in February). He announced the establishment of Statistics Exam. The mining production and ‘decreased by 11, 5% per year (-16.5%), the power of 11, 1% (-13.3%).
Hungary industrial output rising
Budapest – Hungarian industrial production in March and ‘increased by 2.8% compared to March 2009. Said on the Central Statistics Office, however, notes that ‘as compared to February there was a decrease of 0.4%. I am four months that the data on industrial production and ‘the rise, after the previous twelve months had always been a negative one.
Russia, weak growth in industrial production
The abuse of federal statistics in Russia (Rosstat) made public the data on the state of industrial production in March. Compared to the results recorded in February production increased by 15.3%, while compared to March 2009 growth was 5.7%. In the first quarter of 2010 over the corresponding period of 2009 there was an increase of 5.8 percent.
On outline the results of the recovery in industrial output in March and throughout the first quarter of this year not bad. Analysts expect a consolidation of the positive phenomena, even if growth remains weak. Causing concern at the situation of manufacturing industry of Russia together with industry leads to the formation of mining production index trends. Indeed, in the manufacturing sector recording a 5.1% over the same month of 2009, when there was a drop by 20.8% compared to March 2008. Also the increase of 5.2% in the first quarter over the same period of 2009 represents only a relative growth, which in fact could be represented as a decline of 15% compared to the results recorded by manufacturing the Russian March of 2008. This confirms the sluggish recovery of Russian industry.
As regards individual sectors, particularly in chemicals, metallurgical and food, the results achieved in March differ little or nothing to those of February. However, in the first quarter metallurgical industry has managed to return almost to the positions held before the financial crisis. In the period from January to March 2010, the metallurgical industry production increased by an average of 33% over the same quarter of 2009. The production of pig iron grew by 31.4%, production of rolled steel and ferrous metals rose 21.6%, the steel tube increased by 46.5% (again compared to the results of the first quarter of 2009).
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